I came across this article by Charles Arthur on the Guardian website, looking for clues for the iPad's UK pricing.

In short, he takes a look at the price of the new version of the Aperture software in the UK compared to the US, and uses it as a base to estimate the iPad costs. His methodology is to knock off VAT at 17.5%, convert UK to US (at a rate of £0.603 = $1)- revealing about a 20% premium for the UK's price. He then extrapolates that conversion rate to get some guesstimates for the iPad's price over here– which as yet have not been announced.

The problem with this approach is that the price for Aperture looks like an odd point to start out with. The reason I think this is because I'd already done some back-of-a-napkin maths myself to take a guess at the iPad prices, looking at the costs of iPods and iPod Touches to get a fix on the relative prices, simply by converting the prices (at $0.619=$1 at the time I did it.)

The difference is quite consistent- about a 20%. (That is, the US prices were equivalent to about 80% of the UK prices. Reversing the maths means that the UK prices have a premium of between 23-27%.) This ignores why the prices are different– I figure that issues like import tax, VAT, or the cost of shipping iPods and iPads should be roughly equivalent- or at least so close as to not make a significant difference.

So applying the same conversion in reverse to the iPad's US prices should give a good steer on the UK prices.

(Italics indicate my estimates.)

There are a couple of flaws with this kind of theory. Firstly, the theory that the new devices won't get an arbitrary additional premium (like the Aperture software seems to for some unexplained reason.)

Secondly, that the negotiations with the UK mobile networks won't affect the prices of the non-3G versions. If Apple want to get them into as many homes as possible– which seems to be behind their pricing strategy– it might make sense for them to offer a subsidy on the 3G version in exchange for a premium price on the WiFi-only versions. It seems odd that Apple have decided not to say anything about the price over here, and unless it's tied up in negotiations, I can't see any reason why they would be holding back.

I won't pretend to be an expert on the US mobile network industry, but given that you can buy a netbook with a value of about £350 and get it for free on a 24 month, £35/month contract, I'd expect to see something similar from the UK networks for an iPad deal. (We saw something similar when the iPhone 3G came out over here with much more appealing subsidies from O2 than AT&T were offering in the UK.) It would certainly help the iPad to compete with netbooks and laptops for consumers' spending.

Of course, it might be that they just sell the iPad in the same way as in the US– unlocked, with a SIM slot that any network can be used for on a "pay as you go" basis. But our network market is more mature and more competitive than the US, and without the bad reputation that AT&T have in the US with the iPhone.

I guess we'll find out in a couple of months. But it will be interesting to see what the price might tell us about the networks' attitudes to Apple.