I think there are three different kinds of "big thinkers" in the digital world.

There are the people who have taken a good look around and seem to really understand what's going on; what's happened, and how we got where we are. These are the people who are great at commenting on and explaining what's happening right now in the industry, not just knowing what is happening, but why things are happening. There are lots of people like these– usually, they will specialise in a particular field (because the only way you can really keep track of everything that's going on is to keep a tight, narrow focus on what you're looking at.) So— to take a particular example from the world of technology— someone might have a very deep understanding of eBooks through knowing about the different devices available, the different publishers selling work for each device and the drivers and barriers to their growth.

Then there are people who take this knowledge a step further and look at where things are heading; what the implications of what's happening today will be in the future. These are the people who are best placed to understand which markets and businesses investors should be putting their money into. They need a broader view– for example, understanding how the eBook market might be affected by developments in laptop, netbook and smartphone technology, or by the businesses of online publishers and advertisers. Although there are plenty of people in this area, by the nature of looking into the future and making guesses and predictions, there seem to be less of what I'd call "great thinkers." More people who sound more convincing than they are, and less with true insight and understanding. (Although this might well be a sign of my own arrogance, and it actually just means that there are fewer people whose views align with my own.)

But finally there are the people who, having taken a good shot at getting their head around tomorrow, understand the implications of what's happening there, and what the future trajectory will look like. Their understanding of the future of eBooks would also take in an understanding of the publishing industry for books, magazines and newspapers, the cutting edge developments of screen, battery and storage technology over the next few years, the developments of online content, the kind of people who do and don't like reading off a screen and reading off paper, the different effects of different kinds of reading, the way the world of education is taking up IT and how the next generation of adults will be used to reading and learning.

Those kind of big thinkers seem to be few and far between— so when I came across this lecture by Jaron Lanier, which I think places him quite firmly in the third category of thinkers, I got quite excited. He's currently promoting his book "You are not a gadget", which I'm about half way through reading.

The lecture has lots of tasters of some really interesting ideas, most (if not all) of which the book covers in more depth.

The central idea of the book is about what happens when ideas become digitised— from the way music is chopped up into regular packets via MIDI through to when your identity is broken up into the categories Facebook uses to represent you on it's profile pages. When this happens, something gets lost in the process, but we don't necessarily understand what gets lost— or the implications of what we are losing. So it is really about understanding the negative consequences of the march of technology.

What's interesting is that it's from the point of view of someone who has been in the heart of Silicon Valley for many years, at the forefront of the development of many interesting and exciting technologies— and someone still excited about the potential that computers and networked technologies have and the problems they can solve. So, importantly, this is not from a luddite, against-the-march-of-technology attitude, but from looking at the implications of particular choices in technology design and application. Rather than from someone scared of the possibilities of the Internet, it's someone disappointed that the promises it offered 25 years ago just haven't been delivered on. Which, all in all, is quite unlike anything I've come across before.

For example, looking at the steam engine; there's no way that the implications of that particular technology could have been understood when it was invented— the effect on travel and distance. The effect on the environment as fosil fuels were mined and burnt. The effect on global politics as fossil fuels became so valuable, and the pressures it placed on the countries where they can be found and easily mined.

He also challenges the idea that giving your work away over the Internet for free makes your work somehow more fruitful. This is an argument I've heard (and recycled myself) many times, about the power of the internet as a cheap/free distribution channel, and the opportunities it opens up. It's interesting to hear it challenged from the perspective of an artist who has watched it fail to deliver on the promises that it offers, and articulate enough to explain what the problems are, as well as the implications of those problems.

Anyway, I strongly recommend having a listen to the podcast- even if you don't buy the book, which I'd also recommend: You are Not a Gadget: A Manifesto (Note- Amazon Affiliates link.) Or if you just want a shorter taster, here's a recent interview he did with the Observer.